1 Selection for Musselburgh 22nd July

Filed under Tips, July 22nd, 2014

3.00 Musselburgh

No a particularly strong looking race. Windforpower has been consistent all summer and not beaten far. He is becoming frustrating and hard to win with again which is a concern. He does also still remain 5lb above last winning mark.
Black Douglas has caught the eye a couple of times now and ultimately disappointed again last time out when he looked as if he was gonna come through and win comfortably when travelling strongly but found very little before plugging on. He remains with just 1 win from 26 starts and is clearly risky.
Baltic Spirit remains a maiden but appeared to take a small step forward when second at Hamilton on penultimate start in first time blinkers, unable to back that up 2 days later and has to bounce back again just 8 days later, risky.
Chloes Dream is potentially on a very good mark having last won off a mark of 60 and now running off 51 but has shown very little since then and clearly needs to show more.
It might be worth taking a risk on Findog, he was infront of Black Douglas last time out. He always had a bit of a finishing kick last year but hadn’t shown that all season until last time out when finishing well. He was costly to follow last year when often finding trouble, but this is a small field so hopefully can avoid traffic problems. He has dropped a long way in the weights this season and has a very useful apprentice on board today claiming a further useful 3lb and looks worth a chance to back up improved effort last time out.

2pt win Findog 10/3 VC

Selections For Sandown and Beverley 4th July

Filed under Tips, July 4th, 2014

3.35 Sandown
A decent listed event over 1m2f, several of these have quite a bit to find on ratings.
Amralah has run 2 respectable efforts in big field handicaps off marks in the 90’s but that leaves him needing a lot more in this.
Tha’ir is usueful on his day and was last seen winning a 10 runner handicap in Meydan in February, he can be very hit and miss though but good record fresh is good.
Windhoek looks Godolphins first string and has been very well backed this morning. Won a handicap in Meydan before returning to be a strong 2nd in the Winter Derby at Lingfield. Has since been beaten by French Navy the last twice, has a little to find on ratings but clearly in good heart and still improving.
It might be worth taking a punt on Educate who comes out on top of BHA ratings, set some very tough asks in Meydan this spring but performed very well in first 2. Last seen winning the Cambridgeshire in this country off 104, probably should have won more last year but was given some questionable rides at times. Looks the value in this race.

2pt win Educate 10/3 Coral

7.30 Beverley
Berlusca looks a bit of an AW specialist despite a win on turf. Shown very little in last 3 runs and can only be watched despite creeping back in the weights.
Fieldgunner Kirkup has won 3 times around here, was 2nd last time out over this trip at Leicester on soft ground, all wins have come with some cut in the ground so the drying ground is going to be an issue.
Zaitsev won last time out over CD, a 6lb rise leaves him looking vulnerable again having struggled of similar marks in the past.
King of Macedon is one of two for Johnston, running to a respectable level the last few runs without looking like a winner waiting to happen and remains just with debut win and first time blinkers need to bring about a lot more.
The second Johnston runner is Loud who has proved very frustrating; he won in eye catching fashion at Southwell in the Spring off a mark of 69. Has since bombed every run since and has plummeted in the weights accordingly. Now running off 65 and took a step in the right direction last time out at Mussleburgh when a neck second finishing well, clearly has to back that up but is too well treated to not ignore in this field.

2pt win Loud 3/1 hills

Selections For Ayr 21st June

Filed under Tips, June 20th, 2014

2.55 Ayr
8 runners and 3 last time out winners, really good looking handicap.
Balty Boys won a 5 runner handicap on soft ground at Nottingham, 3lb higher demands a lot more off top weight. Fast ground might also be against him today.
Two For Two was nearly 3 lengths bhind Balty Boy last time out, gets a 5lb turnaround in the weights and return to faster ground a positive for him but probably still high enough in the weights.
Capo Rosso has won his last 3 starts, latest came off a 5lb lower mark. Fast ground no issue but this clearly demands a lot more.
Lawmans Thunder has bolted up his last 3 starts and handicapper is struggling to catch up with him but he has been slapped with a 12lb rise and makes turf debut today so would be no surprise to see his winning run come to an end today.
Dubai Dynamo scored comfortably by 2 lengths last time out, 4lb rise not excessive and has won off this mark. Yard going great guns and a strong pace likely to be the case here which will suit.

2pt win Dubai Dynamo 5/1 pp

3.35 Ayr
Beaumonts Party showed nothing on return to action last time out having won fresh last year so has to go down as disappointing, remains 8lb above last winning mark aswell.
Strictly Silver is kept busy and has dropped to a dangerous mark now 9lb below last winning mark. Didn’t shape as an obvious next time out winner but clearly getting closer and is one to watch.
Muharrer won last time out on reappearance beating the inform Memory Cloth, still not fully exposed and could have more to offer but a 7lb rise looks harsh enough.
San Cassiano won over CD in soft conditions and has gone up 4lb for that which leaves him needing a career best off 85, unlike to get a soft lead but yard are going very well.
Argaki was only 1/2length behind Sir Guy Porteous at Hamilton 3 days ago, that was a really good effort and a repeat of that would see him go very close. This may just come soon enough he had a hard race that day.
One Pekan might be worth one more chance, it is interesting top yard preserve with him and make the journey up north. He had no chance with the impressive winner last time out at Yarmouth when he was hampered and that winner has gone on to win twice more since today off a 13lb higher mark. He pulled comfortably clear of the remainder runs off same mark and no problem with this extended trip.

2pt win One Pekan 4/1 PP

Selections for Newmarket 20th June

Filed under Tips, June 20th, 2014

8.05 Newmarket
Several of these have good course form and is a really good race for an evening meeting.
Maid A Million didn’t show much on reappearance and needs to come on from that, but has finished in the first 3 in 3 runs here. Last win came off a 22lb lower mark so this might be a tough ask off top weight.
Life Partner was 2nd on latest start beaten over 5 lengths by the rejuvenated Hillbilly Boy who runs in the Buckingham Palace stakes today at Royal Ascot, the 3rd has since won at Musselburgh. He runs off the same mark today but will need to step up again to be winning this.
Sir Mike is another that looks weighted to his best and not for the first time Yarmouth form didn’t stand up away from the course.
Showboating is another course specialist having finished 2nd here 3 times. But he is hard to predict and hasn’t shown much recently and mark high enough.
Dark Emerald has returned in great form this summer with a win on return and a good 3rd off revised mark last time, a career best effort is required off this mark though.
Zacynthus has worked his way back to form this season, only beaten a head at Newcastle latest and only went up a 1lb for that effort and has gone well here before including a win so should run his race once again for all consistency not his strong suit.
Englishman is an interesting runner, missed the whole of 2013 and showed little on return to action but took a big step forward when only just beaten by a good handicapper in good form last time out at Windsor. 2lb rise fair front 2 pulled comfortably clear. Looked well worth another try at 7f given the way he finished the race and if coping with the faster ground he looks a big price to go well again.

2pt win Englishman 9/1 SeanieMac

Selections for Southwell, Lingfield and Leicester 19th June

Filed under Tips, June 18th, 2014

4.45 Southwell
3yr old handicaps not usually my betting ground but this one does attract me, simply because of the level of fibresand form on show.
Red Primo is 2 from 2 around here both over 6f, winning a maiden and a classified event. Never cut any ice on handicap debut turf last time out off a mark of 73, runs off 72 today. Although winning in good style when last seen he beat very little and this mark might be harsh enough based on that form but could bounce back on this surface.
Outbacker has shown very little recently but does have 1 run on this surface and that was a respectable 3rd behind Alumina.
Two Shades Of Grey comes from the in form Fahey yard but has been held since winning on seasonal debut and handicapper might be in chance.
Buy Out Boy shown nothing for old connections but has joined Appleby yard who know the time of day with their runners around here but on shown form cant be backed.
Injaz wasn’t disgraced on only one run around here over 6f, again good effort last time out but needs to step up again.
Wildcat Lass is the interesting one for me, was unlucky to bump into a couple of better rivals in course maidens before finally getting off the mark on this surface 3 starts back, not a strong race but did it in good style. Lesser effort back on turf before bouncing back around a mile here, stamina look stretched that day and drop back to 7f a huge plus and looks a real course specialist in the making.

2pt win Wildcat Lass 4/1 bet365

7.25 Lingfield
Decent fillies handicap with several of these bringing good recent form to the table.
Sonnetation produced a career best effort last time out over this CD behind Secret Success. She was still beaten 2 lengths and will need to improve again to be winning a race as competitive as this despite racing off same mark.
Princess Spirit has long looked an AW specialist especially at Kempton, showed she could act around here last time out having previously shown little here. Needs to back that effort up off a 1lb higher mark from widest draw.
Two In The Pink was largely consistent on the AW in the spring but showed nothing on recent return on turf. Would be no surprise to see her bounce back around here but she does remain with just 1 win in a maiden from 14 starts.
Bold Ring a course specialist with 6 wins around here but she is better known for her 7f exploits and usually worth taking on these days. Promising apprentice taking over the ride here.
Welsh Inlet another who is better over 7f than a mile and is probably worth avoiding over todays trip.
Meddling is not entirely straightforward but she clearly has bags of ability if she can put it all together. She finally scored narrowly last time out over this CD when making all that might just be the key to her. She looks to be the only out and out front runner so if they push her forward again she might get a soft lead again. Yard also in good heart currently.

2pt win Meddling 11/2 bet365

8.10 Leicester
This race is not the strongest with plenty of these with something to prove at present.
Serenity Spa won a mile handicap at Lingfield in March and has run some respectable races since but hasn’t shaped as if needing a drop back to sprinting which has to be the concern here.
Meandmyshadow is a hard horse to predict but he did score nicely last time out at Carlisle, runs under a 6lb penalty today but still very well treated on best form but isn’t one for maximum faith to back up latest win.
Red Lady showed improved form last time out to finish 3rd in first time hood and cheekpieces. They are retained this time but ultimately she was still beaten nearly 10 lengths so needs to take another massive step forward here.
Clock Opera rarely runs a bad race but needs a near career best off this sort of mark and looked held last time out.
Mill I Am has proved consistent on the AW but on 3 runs on the turf last season showed nothing so needs to continue her good work back on turf.
The safest option may well be the handicapping debutant Koala Bear. Clearly had her issues having not been seen in 2013 but has made a decent return this year in 2 maidens, looking in need of further last time out over 5f, steps up to 6f today whether that’s enough is yet to be seen but this is weak. An opening mark of 64 looks very workable and clearly has more scope than most of these.

2pt win Koala Bear 3/1 PP

Selection For Hamilton 18th June

Filed under Tips, June 18th, 2014

2.20 Hamilton
King Of Eden has shown very little so far this season. He has been very well backed throughout this morning and despite being 8lb below last winning mark he is hard to fancy on what he has shown recently.
Economic Crisis is a course specialist with all 5 wins around here, only one of them has been over this trip and has proved better over 5f recently and yet to win off a mark this high.
Gold Beau is another that looks just about right in the handicap and has shown little so far this spring.
Alexandrakollontai was a short head winner last time out over CD, he is now a 3 time CD winner. Up 4lb for latest win and has always struggled off a mark like this and he looks vulnerable.
Hab Reeh has been in consistent form this spring, winnign twice now in soft conditions, effectively 7lb higher today under penalty but apprentice does take 7lb off. Slight concern the ground might be going against him despite having form on faster ground in younger days.
Amenable might prove hard to beat. He finally capitilised on his much lower AW mark at Southwell at start of month in really good style before running a great race in a strong race at Sandown to finish 2nd. Runs off the same mark today but with a useful apprentice taking 5lb off, and although sometime since shown form off this sort of mark he is clearly thriving again at present and hard to ignore.

2pt win Amenable 3/1 bet365

Selections for Chepstow and Musselburgh

Filed under Tips, June 12th, 2014

3.25 Musselburgh
Not a bad handicap and fairly wide open with many of these in with a chance.
Best Of Order won on heavy ground first time up this season, just a fair effort off revised mark. Blinkers back on today after not being on for last 2 runs but has something to prove on this sort of ground with it likely to dry up further.
Newstead Abbey has proved largely consistent this spring but is still 11lb above last winning mark although was a neck second off a 1lb lower than todays so isn’t completely out of it although handicapper looking in charge at present.
Laffan is another that looks held by the handicapper at present and has little room for error.
Tellovoi appears to have gone off the boil of late. Heavy Metal has quickly gone back into his shell after his win at Brighton in a 4 runner event and has long been one to avoid. Silver Rime has been soundly beaten in 3 starts this season.
Majestic Moon was a beaten favourite last time out, ran his race without looking a next time out winner.
Just Paul looks a big price with him taken to bounce back from a poor effort last time out. He scored comfortably over this CD on penultimate start off a mark of 76, never fired last time off revised mark of 81. Runs off that mark again today but has the very useful Haynes on board claiming 5lb off. Can boast a strong record around here 3 from 4 around here and only loss around here was a 2nd.

2pt win Just Paul 11/2 bet365

7.15 Chepstow
Not a great race with most of these exposed as poor these days.
Oratorios Joy hasn’t showed much recently but has now dropped to last winning mark but overall profile is somewhat patchy.
Another with a rather patchy record is Sweet Martoni won on penultimate start over this CD on soft ground, quickly held last time out at Lingfield and needs to bounce back quickly on a return to here.
Tenbridge didn’t run too badly last time out and has a good record around here with 2 wins from 6 around here. He’s dropped to 3lb below last winning mark but latest run doesn’t suggest a step up in trip is an obvious move to get back in front.
Raamz remains a maiden after 16 starts but couple of better efforts recently and latest effort was a big improvement that was at Hamilton and in a lesser race than this so with a 4lb rise and better race he might face a struggle again.
Zed Candy Girl had previously looked very limited but scored off basement mark at Wolves and again last time out at Bath. She scored nicely last time out on first run for this yard so could have more to offer but an 8lb rise looks extremely harsh and cheekpieces left off this time aswell.
Lady Guinevere remain a maiden after just 6 runs, she is clearly not entirely straightforward but yet to run an awful race. Totally messed that start up last time out when favourite probably had to do too much too get to the front before fading out of it. Well worth another chance in handicap company off same mark and also dropping back ever so slightly in trip.

2pt win Lady Guinevere 3/1 bet365

Selection for Catterick 6th June

Filed under Tips, June 5th, 2014

2.55 Catterick
Bonnie Charlie is not the force of old and has gone over a year without a win now, dropped 5lb below that winning mark but not shown much so far this season. Also recent better efforts have been on faster ground.
Oscars Journey finished 4th on first run for over 10 months at Nottingham, will relish ground conditions and dropped 2lb below last winning mark. If able to build on that reappearance should go well although bounce factor a concern.
Take The Lead won last time out making all, got a soft lead that day unlikely to get the same soft lead here, 4lb higher and drops back to 5f which he clearly has the speed to deal with.
Of the rest very few make much appeal but several like to be up with the pace which should mean we get a well run race which should suit Windforpower. He has been kept busy this spring but proved consistent, only beaten by a handicap blot last time out, will relish conditions and should get a race run to suit. 1lb below that last run and currently 2lb ahead of the handicapper and has won off 6lb higher mark on the AW so could still have more to offer, hasn’t always been the most genuine horse but attitude currently seems a lot better.

2pt win Windforpower 3/1 bet365

Selections For Kempton and Lingfield 5th May

Filed under Tips, June 5th, 2014

5.45 Lingfield
Run It Twice has been kept busy all winter and narrowly scored last time out over CD after a short break, up 3lb and a career best required now.
Sweet Martoni is another that scored last time out in soft conditions, that was her first win and has looked a bit of a mud lark so this faster surface might not suit off a 6lb higher mark.
Duke Of Destiny has been subject to market support this morning. He does act on this surface and mark not out the question having gone a very close short head second off a mark of 70 back in October over this CD, struggled to land a blow since then but has now slipped back in the weights to 69 and first time blinkers might be the key (won in first time cheekpieces) only concern is yard little quiet although did manage a winner with last runner 5 days ago.
Fearless Lad is another last time out scorer over this CD scoring quite convincingly. 6lb penalty looks fair but this is a much stronger race up in grade.
Secret Success was just over 2 lengths behind Fearless Lad and gets the 6lb turnaround. He has looked much better on the AW than turf and his run last time out looks worth a lot of credit having perhaps gone to the front too soon. De Sousa takes over from apprentice and could have more to offer on the AW yet and too soon to say he has reached his level after just 11 starts.

2pt win Secret Success 11/2 seaniemac

7.20 Kempton
Tommy’s Secret has a good record on the AW with 1 win and a 2nd from 2 starts, not quite so good on turf after but has now slipped back to last winning mark. No record fresh which is the worry and yard in awful form at present.
Jubilee Brig score when last seen on the AW worth forgiving latest run on soft conditions on turf. Good record on the AW and is worth considering although mark starting to look high enough.
Novellen Lad has dropped back to last winning mark and Fallon an eye catching booking, not in much form recently though and something to prove.
Shaolin another with good record on the AW although the drop back to 6f a concern.
Ex Ex is lightly raced and won 2 polytrack races a maiden and a handicap in January and February. Looked a little flat when last seen perhaps in need of a break might be worth another chance if fit enough to do himself justice after a break.
It might be worth sticking with Run With Pride who has had just the 2 runs causing a bit of a surprise when winning on debut at Doncaster but backed that effort up with a fair effort in handicap company in a hot race at Haydock, that form has taken a couple of boosts since with the winner running well yesterday and the horse behind him finishing placed on further 2 occasions. Yard going well at present and well drawn could take some beating in a lesser race than he contested last time out.

2pt win Run With Pride 7/2 bet365

Selections for Southwell and Kempton 4th June

Filed under Tips, June 4th, 2014

2.30 Southwell
A reasonable handicap with several interesting runners on the fibresand.
Blazeofenchantment appeared to handle the surface well enough on penultimate start when 4th to Loud over CD, nothing more than fair at Wolves last time out. Yet to win off a mark this high and that 4th around here the form hasn’t worked out at all and looks weak.
Victorian Number is another that is potentially unexposed on this surface. Not beaten far off this mark twice in January. Effort at Kempton last time out was a lesser effort but may have needed the run, should strip fitter this time round. Yet to win off a mark this high but could have more to offer here.
Putin is a course regular and was last seen winning over 6f around here in January. Up 4lb for that effort but still on a workable mark, unlikely to get a soft lead here though.
At a price it might be worth risking Tony Hollis. He didn’t go on like most do for this yard when they initially got him. A few respectable efforts at Wolves, yard clearly thing he is ready to do himself justice after a short break with the fitting of the first time visor. He has run a couple of stinkers here but has also run some promising runs here too, yard have a good record here and is on last winning mark. Stall 10 not necessarily a bad thing around here if he breaks well enough. Only slight concern is yard has gone a bit quiet recently.

2pt win Tony Hollis 13/2 bet365

5.30 Southwell
Pretty weak affair to finish the card on and don’t think it will take much winning at all.
The fact Pearl Noir carries top weight really says it all 1 win from 28 in a CD maiden, clearly acts on surface as most best efforts have been here although they have come off 4-5lb lower marks so has work cut out off this sort of mark to be winning.
Amenable went a bit closer last time out at Hamilton on a higher turf mark. Hasn’t won on this surface since 2010 and had opportunities clearly a risky proposition to back up latest effort back on this surface.
Confidential Creek has just the 1 win to his name and that was over this CD around this time last year off a 2lb higher mark. Didn’t show much on last 2 starts and needs a huge bounce back.
Doctor Hilary has looked by the handicapper on his last 2 efforts after winning over this CD.
Flow Chart has a pretty poor strike rate but usually runs his race here, dropped to 5lb below last winning mark but losing run stacking up. Booking of Fanning eye catching though.
Coach Montana is unlikely to get such a soft lead on this surface as he got at Wolves last time out and needs to prove himself on this surface 1 run here was respectable.
In a very weak affair it might be worth taking a risk on Upper Lambourn. His losing run stretches back now to March last year and largely in the doldrums since but latest effort was somewhat better showing a bit more staying on for 3rd. Step up in trip will suit and on a dangerous mark now 7lb below last winning mark and all 4 wins around here including 2 at this trip.

1pt e/w Upper Lambourn 10/1 bet365

6.30 Kempton
Good mix of front and prominent runners with hold up sorts which is likely to suit the hold up sorts more.
Silver Dixie never got involved over shorter around here on first run of the season. Will appreciate this return to further but will need to improve on that effort to be winning a race as strong as this.
Xinbama won last time out, up 6lb for that win and this now requires a career best effort.
Dandy was behind Xinbama in 2nd by 1 length, was a no show on turf at Newmarket next run and has to bounce back now.
Rouge Nuage was a good 2nd over a mile around here, is yet to totally convince over this trip and the bounce factor is a worry here after a lengthy layoff.
Little Buxted is the most interesting for me at the prices. Lightly raced with a progressive profile on the AW. He went well fresh last year. Really solid effort when last seen at Kempton in November when looking very unlucky in the run. Will appreciate a strong run race and only up a 1lb for latest win looks very lenient.

2pt win Buxted 7/1 VC

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