Selections For Wolverhampton 3rd October

Filed under Tips, October 3rd, 2014

8.20 Wolverhampton
Decent looking 3yr old field with several of these lightly race, several more been freshened up for a winter campaign and some in good form.
Spreadable was a last time out winner over a mile at Lingfield, scored comfortably and step up to a mile shouldn’t be a problem but widest draw is harsh under a 6lb penalty.
Artisitic Queen won on debut on turf at Lingfield at 16/1, that race hasn’t worked out great and was a tad disappointing on handicap debut at Yarmouth in a small field. Needs to show more on AW debut if to win this.
Zman Awal was disappointing after winning her maiden in 2 handicaps on the AW and the break needs to have brought about some change for her to be winning this.
Plucky Dip has won his last 2 starts over CD both in good style. A 6lb penalty makes things tougher again and wide draw tough but hard to pass over.
Derbyshire clearly has his quirks but scored in good style over CD on penultimate run, disappointing at Ayr last time out but could be the sort to bounce back if new mark isn’t over bearing.
Valen isn’t out of this neither given she was hampered last time out but still finished well into 3rd and would be one to watch.
Marmarus is another CD winner last time out, up a further 5lb today with decent apprentice claiming 3lb of that back, clearly a favourites chance but little value in his price.
Shingle might be the one to be with in this trappy looking event. Appeared to improve quite a bit last time out on AW debut at Kempton over 6f, shaping as if a step up in trip would suit given the way he was finishing. Runs off the same mark today and draw been much kinder today.

2pt win Shingle 5/1 bet365

9.20 Wolverhampton
This doesn’t look particularly strong and only a few make any appeal at all.
Aomen Rock looks held by the handicapper and the effect of the visor may just be wearing off now.
Santa Teresa looks a very short price, showed plenty of promise on debut over slightly shorter around here before scoring narrowly at Kempton over a mile. Steps up in trip and doesn’t shape as if that is a problem. Open mark doesn’t look over bearing but those maidens not the strongest and very short against some battle hardened runners.
Kindlelight Storm is a CD specialist, posted a career best effort last time out a Lingfield over further and a repeat of that off a 1lb higher mark will see him go very close back over this CD.

2pt win Kindlelight Storm 8/1 VC

Selection For Kempton 2nd Oct

Filed under Tips, October 2nd, 2014

8.45 Kempton
Ghost Train had been going well in the spring but hasn’t been seen since June. Record fresh looking a little patchy and when last seen handicapper looked just to have hold.
Four Cheers makes handicap debut after 3 maiden runs, and could quite easily improve.
Compton Prince is a capable performer and has clearly been freshened up for a winter campaign but record fresh is not great and probably best watched.
Reaffirmed is lightly raced and won last time out up 4lb for that effort, didn’t look to have a huge amount to spare but could be open to further progress yet.
Divine Call really caught the eye last time out, travelling strongly and getting a little caught on heels at a vital stage before finishing well. Handicapper left him unchanged and he remains on his last winning mark and if building on that he should go well but isn’t always the most reliable.
Varsovian was a decent looking winner last time out over CD on first try at 6f, a repeat of that performance under a 6lb penalty would see him very hard to beat especially with him being drawn so well again over this trip. He is infact 2lb ahead of the handicapper under his penalty and is hard to get away from.

1.5pt win Varsovian 2/1 bet365
0.5pt win Divine Call 9/1 VC

Selections For Kempton 1st October

Filed under Tips, October 1st, 2014

5.45 Kempton
The first class 7 handicap of the season! The key to these are simply find the ones well handicapped and in form sorts and it is easy to cross several of these out.
Befortyfour used to be a reasonable sort but has long been on the back foot and remains one to tread carefully with. Last win came in 2008 and off a mark of 95 but can only be watched.
Greek Island is dropping dramatically in trip and is well handicapped, but the trip is a worry.
Like all of these First Rebellion is not regular winner with just 2 wins from 55 starts, he is atleast showing that he is in form at present with 2 placed efforts, handicapper given him a chance dropping him 2lb for those efforts but is still yet to win off a mark this high so comes with obvious risks attached.
Don’t Tell Nan improved dramatically last time out on the fibresand at Southwell in August, now needs to back that up away from that surface aswell so probably best watched at the prices.
Volcanic Dust might be worth taking a risk on, she is a 5f specialist and is well handicap now 2lb below last winning mark. She is a front/prominent runner and there isn’t a huge amount of front runners in this race, well drawn to be front rank here and Norton takes over from apprentices and should strip fitter for recent run.

2pt win Volcanic Dust 12/1 hills

8.45 Kempton
Mon Cigar makes handicap debut today having shown some ability in 3 maidens may do better stepping up and going into handicap.
Lacock comes from a very respected yard at this level, beaten favourite last time out. Blinkers on for the first time but does still remain a maiden.
Celestial Knight won last time out, just getting up over a mile around here. Drop in trip perhaps not great, 2lb rise looks very lenient and should go well again if coping with drop in trip.
Princess Spirit has ran well the last two times over a mile and is another that a drop in trip doesn’t look ideal for. Hughes a strong booking though and is always respected around here with both her wins coming here.
It might just be worth giving Lord Of The Dance another chance. He was very well backed last time out but got caught wide throughout from wide draw and raced a little moodily it looked. Draw not been that kind again tonight but handicapper dropped him yet another 3lb and he is now 18lb below last winning mark and this is a lot weaker race.

2pt win Lord Of The Dance 8/1 VC

Selection for Kempton 25th September

Filed under Tips, September 24th, 2014

8.15 Kempton
Alnoomas is searching for a hatrick after racking up a quick double on turf, never won off a mark this high but last time out was a career best effort so under a penalty could go well with useful claimer offsetting 5lb of the 6.
Artic Lynx is 5lb below last win over CD, not shown much recently and probably best watched.
Dominium finally got his head infront after a string of good efforts, only just got up and a 4lb rise looks harsh on the face of it.
Moonspring is another last time out winner but again his 5lb rise looks harsh, but cant completely dismiss.
Sweet Talking Guy has put 2 good efforts together back to back, 3lb rise leaves him needing more for the win and now puts him 7lb above last winning mark.
Theres two in this race that might be worth taking a risk on, the first one being Novellen Lad he needs a strongly run race to be seen to best effect. This should be run at a fair clip could see him go well. He has dropped to a very dangerous mark 5lb below his last winning mark and all recent form has come on the AW rather than turf.
Another that should shape better is Gone With The Wind who didn’t go on after 2 wins over this CD having bombed on soft turf at Windsor not see for nearly 5 months before showing very little last time out back over this CD. Clearly in need of the run and if stripping fitter he is still lightly raced and interesting connections are persevering with him currently.

1pt win Gone With The Wind 7/1 bet365
1pt win Novellen Lad 16/1 pp

Selection For Kempton 24th September

Filed under Tips, September 24th, 2014

9.20 Kempton
Assertive Agent has been running well most of the summer although looking exposed at this sort of mark and likely to struggle off top weight.
Under Review is starting to drop in the weights but still remains 2lb above last winning mark and well held last time out at Wolves.
Catalinas Diamond is a regular on the AW, potentially well handicapped still but needs things to fall right and race run to suit and is always risky to back.
Black Truffle has to bounce back from a poor turf run last time out which is likely as he is a much better horse on the AW. Yet to win off a mark this high though and draw been unkind.
New Rich has been just going through the motions on the turf recently but has dropped to 5lb below last winning mark on the AW and could be dangerous with blinkers on for the first time and from a good draw.
Hamis Al Bin is largely consistent but finds winning overall tough and hard to warm too.
Stapleford Lad has ran well over CD last 2 runs against his own age, well drawn tonight and should continue to go well.
High Tone another who ran a good race last time out, Hughes a strong booking and a pound higher mark would see him go well again if able to reproduce which he hasn’t done in the past.
Bookmaker might be worth taking a chance on, he won a selling handicap on handicap debut last time out and has joined the John Bridger yard who have had a winner. Blinkers were fitted for the first time and they are retained. 1st and 2nd pulled nicely clear of the 3rd in that race with the runner up going on to run a good 2nd off a 3lb higher mark. Bookmaker is up 4lb so should give another good show and still lightly raced.

1.5pt win Bookmaker 9/1 hills
0.5pt win New Rich 9/2 hills

Selections For Wolverhampton 15th Sept

Filed under Tips, September 14th, 2014

6.00 Wolverhampton
Shaunas Sprirt hasn’t been seen since April, has won fresh but overall record suggest needs a run. Also held off this mark when last seen and although apprentices claim could help probably best watched off top weight.
Sakash won comfortably at Yarmouth last time out in first time cheekpieces, 6lb rise looks fair on that and switch to AW no problem. Clearly going the right way although not sure I would wanna take 11/4.
Gigawatt is an interesting runner sent off 50/1 after over a year off the track, showed some promise off a 1lb higher mark not beaten far at Kempton and one to watch for future assignments.
For Shia and Lula has a reasonable strike rate for a horse at this level and usually holds his form well. Has always been found out by marks in the 70’s though and after his win last time out he is forced to race off 71 having won off 2lb lower being made to work for that win aswell.
Hill Of Dreams has the ability although has his quirks, goes without the headgear which he usually has and better known as a mile specialist.
Lord Of The Dance is the most interesting for me, for starters De Sousa is an eye catching booking. He has plummeted in the weights since his last win last July off a mark of 82 now racing off 67. Has 3 wins around here and much better last time out when staying on strongly and beaten less than 5 lengths last time out. Wide draw not ideal but he isn’t going to be front rank early on so should overcome that if good enough.

2pt win Lord Of The Dance 8/1 bet365

Selections For Lingfield and Kempton 27th August

Filed under Tips, August 26th, 2014

5.25 Lingfield
Really interesting handicap with several potential improvers.
El Mirage is 10lb below last AW winning mark and has been running respectably of late but lengthy losing run becoming a worry.
Midnight Fest is another 13lb below his last winning mark but hasn’t shown a huge amount recently and has to remain best watched.
Cyflymder was a winner 3 starts back when making all in impressive style over this CD, has been undone by his draw last 2 starts and possibly trip latest but drawn wide again will have to work hard from stall 9.
Patronella looks the one to be with, yet to win yet in 6 starts but clearly still unexposed and really solid effort last time out when less than a length in 2nd at Brighton, runs off same mark today 4lb well in and drawn well in stall 3. Yard currently going great guns and looks a huge price at 4/1.

2pt win Patronella 4/1 pp

8.25 Kempton
Lion Beacon could be overpriced, has a good strike rate 4 wins from 15, latest coming over 1m6f at Goodwood off a 2lb lower mark before struggling stepped up in trip last time out, drops back in trip today and could improve again but could get taken on for the lead again.
Sir Frank Morgan is 4 from 4 over this trip on the AW and is another front runner. He remains 5lb above last winning mark but has been running in much better company and should find this a lot easier.
Perfect Summer looks a plodder who lacks a change of gear, yet to totally prove he stays this trip but could still be well treated if taking a small step forward under useful apprentice taking off 5lb.
See and Be Seen might be the one to take a chance on proving consistent since stepping up in trip and won the last 2 runs on the AW including this CD, has since won a much stronger race than this and finished a short head 2nd at York, up just a 1lb for that effort in a class 3 event could take all the beating if continuing in same vein.

2pt win See and Be Seen 7/2 coral

Selections for Wolverhampton 25th August

Filed under Tips, August 25th, 2014

8.50 Wolverhampton
Echo Brava has been running respectably of late and has been ridden more positively than is usually his winning way, remains on a very harsh mark 7lb above last winning mark and more needed in this.
Warrigal is another likely prominent runner, very keen last time out in first time visor and having been gelded. 6lb rise fair but extra 2f here and visor has to work again.
Manomine is not entirely straightforward but is useful on his day, another front runner but may be stretched by this trip.
Lineman had shown a bit of promise on time before last but took a large step back although could be ground related, will appreciate the return to the AW and first time cheekpieces.
Underwritten won a weak Newcastle race yesterday and likely to be a non runner and this will clearly demand more under a 6lb penalty.
Dino Mite is an interesting runner having bolted up at Southwell in a nothing more than average maiden, showed little on handicap debut on turf off a potentially harsh looking mark, return to AW could help but has something to prove although clearly not exposed.
It might be worth taking a chance on the old boy Admirable Duque at his beloved track, clearly hasn’t tried this surface yet but handles the fibresand and that shouldn’t stop him coming good. He has shown a little more promise last couple of times and is 6 from 10 over this CD. Will get the race run to suit with so much pace likely in this race and has now dropped to a 1lb below last winning mark.

2pt win Admirable Duque 10/1 pp

9.20 Wolverhampton
A very poor looking race to finish on, most of these have a lot to prove for the time being.
Bubbly Bailey has a poor strike rate 2 from 25 and looks held by handicapper on recent efforts 5lb above last winning mark.
Your Gifted is very well treated now 32lb below last winning mark but on a lengthy losing run and needs to show a lot more.
Rise To Glory could be a danger to all if getting the spark back having dropped to 5lb below last winning mark, yard going ok and cant be ruled out at a huge price back on preferred AW.
Captain Scooby is on a very lengthy losing run but 20lb below that winning mark. Not straightforward needs a furious pace and the gaps to appear and that is not always guaranteed around here and clearly has his quirks.
Smart DJ is the least exposed in this field making handicap debut after 3 runs in maidens. Those runs in maidens hardly set the world alight but has been given a very low mark with a useful apprentice taking over claiming a very useful 5lb and a nice middle draw to make handicap debut and could go well at a price aswell.

1.5pt win Smart DJ 12/1 PP
0.5pt win Rise To Glory 18/1 bet365

1 Selection for Musselburgh 22nd July

Filed under Tips, July 22nd, 2014

3.00 Musselburgh

No a particularly strong looking race. Windforpower has been consistent all summer and not beaten far. He is becoming frustrating and hard to win with again which is a concern. He does also still remain 5lb above last winning mark.
Black Douglas has caught the eye a couple of times now and ultimately disappointed again last time out when he looked as if he was gonna come through and win comfortably when travelling strongly but found very little before plugging on. He remains with just 1 win from 26 starts and is clearly risky.
Baltic Spirit remains a maiden but appeared to take a small step forward when second at Hamilton on penultimate start in first time blinkers, unable to back that up 2 days later and has to bounce back again just 8 days later, risky.
Chloes Dream is potentially on a very good mark having last won off a mark of 60 and now running off 51 but has shown very little since then and clearly needs to show more.
It might be worth taking a risk on Findog, he was infront of Black Douglas last time out. He always had a bit of a finishing kick last year but hadn’t shown that all season until last time out when finishing well. He was costly to follow last year when often finding trouble, but this is a small field so hopefully can avoid traffic problems. He has dropped a long way in the weights this season and has a very useful apprentice on board today claiming a further useful 3lb and looks worth a chance to back up improved effort last time out.

2pt win Findog 10/3 VC

Selections For Sandown and Beverley 4th July

Filed under Tips, July 4th, 2014

3.35 Sandown
A decent listed event over 1m2f, several of these have quite a bit to find on ratings.
Amralah has run 2 respectable efforts in big field handicaps off marks in the 90’s but that leaves him needing a lot more in this.
Tha’ir is usueful on his day and was last seen winning a 10 runner handicap in Meydan in February, he can be very hit and miss though but good record fresh is good.
Windhoek looks Godolphins first string and has been very well backed this morning. Won a handicap in Meydan before returning to be a strong 2nd in the Winter Derby at Lingfield. Has since been beaten by French Navy the last twice, has a little to find on ratings but clearly in good heart and still improving.
It might be worth taking a punt on Educate who comes out on top of BHA ratings, set some very tough asks in Meydan this spring but performed very well in first 2. Last seen winning the Cambridgeshire in this country off 104, probably should have won more last year but was given some questionable rides at times. Looks the value in this race.

2pt win Educate 10/3 Coral

7.30 Beverley
Berlusca looks a bit of an AW specialist despite a win on turf. Shown very little in last 3 runs and can only be watched despite creeping back in the weights.
Fieldgunner Kirkup has won 3 times around here, was 2nd last time out over this trip at Leicester on soft ground, all wins have come with some cut in the ground so the drying ground is going to be an issue.
Zaitsev won last time out over CD, a 6lb rise leaves him looking vulnerable again having struggled of similar marks in the past.
King of Macedon is one of two for Johnston, running to a respectable level the last few runs without looking like a winner waiting to happen and remains just with debut win and first time blinkers need to bring about a lot more.
The second Johnston runner is Loud who has proved very frustrating; he won in eye catching fashion at Southwell in the Spring off a mark of 69. Has since bombed every run since and has plummeted in the weights accordingly. Now running off 65 and took a step in the right direction last time out at Mussleburgh when a neck second finishing well, clearly has to back that up but is too well treated to not ignore in this field.

2pt win Loud 3/1 hills

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